Soccer Livebetting

Live betting is one of the main sources of income for the bookmaker why?

Well before the match starts there is always large publicity about the coming fixtures for Live matches.They are often 2 strong team facing each other and they are most likely to be telecast throughout the world.why? It is because a lot of people likes to bet on sports that they are able to view live especially those recreation punters who gets real kick watching their favourites team play and also big-time soccer punters who bet 30K-50K per match.There is the jalan bet or live betting bet and the half-time bet which make it more interesting and more variety for punters to bet.These live matches are matches where the bookmakers makes lots of money through the vigourish and not forgetting fixed match.

Observations

How to you identify whether the match is fixed?

1.) During the match observe the 1st 10 mins if any team scores, the match it is mostly fixed.They will score at the most unimaginable timing like within 30 seconds or 3 mins are common signs.

2.) Pay attention to the speed of both team players.The team that will lose will tends to run slower than the other team.Another point to note is the team that is fixed to win they will fight with all their might to get to the ball and the one that is fixed to lose {note this also refers to team that gives ball but unable to cover the AH given} will miss even inches infront of the goal post.Sometimes the team that is fixed to lose will even score for the next team that is the own goal or they are extremely disorganised at the defence showing no effort in blocking the strikers attack.

3.)Not all footballers are great actors pay close attention to their body language, they will display great agonies while missing clear cut shots but their eyes are secretly laughing away some even had difficulty in controlling their facial expression ,occasionally they subconsciously look into the camera before diverting their eyes swiftly away.

4.)Coach odds decision to remove key players from the team substituting with a less superior player.consider this why would a coach remove that particular key striker that has just scored the crucial goal and try to defend the 1 goal lead well within the early 50 or 60 mins.

5.) biased refeering decision.legimate goals claimed as off-side, or clear penalty given as no foul are common signs.giving unessary penalty to team that don’t deserve it.

What to do when you know its fixed?

1.) Don’t bet big when its livematches.Try to observe 1st before you bet then bet during the 2nd half as thats where the bookies tricks reveals itself.

2.) you need to master the art of odds decoding before you are capable of betting big.

3.) Don’t fully trust what you see in the 1st half as what is obvious is often a trap.

4.) Do not doubt the odds, the odds posted are often set in a way to trap the average punters ,so try to mold your thinking like a bookie and you will see much clearer.

The Old West Petticoat Dealer "Madame Mustache"

Eleanore Dumont, known as “Madame Mustache in the frontier gambling saloons, was truly one of the historical phenomenons of that era. As a young petticoat dealer, she became a “super star” dealing twenty-one on the gambler’s gypsy circuit that roamed throughout the West.

There is debate about Dumont’s birthplace; some say that she was a French born immigrant named Simone Jules while others say she was born in New Orleans around 1829. What is known is that a Madame Simone Jules rolled into San Francisco’s Bella Union Saloon and Gambling Hall in the spring of 1850, took over a roulette table, and created a major sensation. Forty-niners, hungry for a mere glimpse of a beautiful woman were staggered by the young Frenchwoman with creamy alabaster skin, shinning black eyes, a flirtatious smile, and long dark tresses that fell to her shoulders. Within a few days men were standing in line to lose their gold dust to the demure mademoiselle that on very close inspection showed a thin line of downy hair on her upper lip.

The Bella union was packed night and day with players eager to see or play against the marvelous Madame Jules. Not to be outdone the other gambling halls quickly imported French women to preside over their roulette wheels. Over the next few years, women croupiers or dealers became the headliners for most of the gambling operations throughout Portsmouth Square. Then as suddenly as she had appeared Madame Jules disappeared from the scene and her name was not mentioned again in any records or newspaper reports.

Several years later in 1854, a stagecoach rolled onto the dusty streets of Nevada City, California, and a well-rounded young woman emerged. Dressed in fine Parisian clothes and expensive jewels, the whole city was set on its ear by the mysterious raven-haired French woman that descended from the coach. She was small and dainty, with doe-like eyes, a mane of curly dark hair, and just a slight hint of diaphanous down on her upper lip. She said her name was Madame Eleanore Dumont and offered nothing about her past – an inscrutable woman of mystery.

Satisfied with her transformation to Madame Dumont the gambling vixen rented a place in the center of town and hung up a sign naming her establishment, the “Vingt-Et-Un” (French for “twenty-one”). Citizens all over town received invitations to visit Broad Street and enjoy a game with Madame Dumont. Though there were over a dozen gambling halls in Nevada City, the Vingt-Et-Un was the undisputed queen of the sporting crowd. Twenty-one was Dumont’s game of choice and she was a master at the game, sweetly expressing regret as she raked in her winnings. When she closed up her table, she would order bottles of champagne to treat the losers, leading most miners to say that they “would rather lose to the Madame than win from somebody else.”

Miners and townsfolk flocked to the establishment, drawn both by the attraction of winning money and the charisma and wit of the French hostess. Decorum was strictly enforced, customers could not engage in brawling or using vulgar language; strangely enough, the rough crowd of miners found it impossible to resist the polite requests of the tantalizing owner. In a very short time, she moved her operation to larger quarters where she added faro, chuck-a-luck, roulette tables, and a staff of dealers. She called her new gambling hall the Dumont Palace and hired a Nevada City gambler named Dave Tobin to be her manager-partner.

Then over the next two years, the money rolled in on a daily basis, so much so that Tobin, who had moved in with Dumont at the National Hotel, wanted to take control of the operation. When he tried to make his move Dumont flew into a rage – just because they shared a bed did not make him the boss of the outfit. She gave him an ultimatum; if he did not like the arrangement then “get the hell out.” He certainly did not like the setup so after a final settlement he slipped out of Nevada City and headed back east.

When the gold in Nevada City eventually ran dry, Eleanore sold her operation and began a tour of the other mining camps of northern California. She opened her game in the Yuba River settlements of Bullard’s Bar, Downieville, and Sierra City; then moved on to mining camps on the Feather River and later the Klamath. In 1857 she dealt twenty-one in George Foster’s City Hotel in Columbia for more than a year before she moved on to Virginia City where she managed a swanky joint that boasted furnishings valued at over $30,000. It was during these series of California mining camps that she added the “extras” to her table operations – a visit to her boudoir requiring a “room charge.”

Dumont left for the gold strikes in Idaho and Montana in the early 1860s and by the end of her tour, she was approaching her thirtieth birthday. The passing years had not been kind to her; the long nights of cards and debauchery began to take its toll, and her once-legendary appearance slowly started to fade. Looking jaded and spent, she lost her hour-glass figure and what was years before only a faint hint of fuzz on her upper lip, had begun to darken – earning her the sobriquet-Madame Mustache.

At Bannack, she teamed up with man by the name of McHarney in a two-story gambling saloon that featured upstairs cribs for quick trysts with the young dancehall girls that worked the saloon below. They had the operation up and going for only a short time before her partner was shot to pieces in a gun battle with another gambler named MacFarlane. What to do? Never missing a beat Dumont had the bloody corpse dragged away, fresh sawdust scattered on the floor, and the saloon swung back into action as if nothing had ever happened. Then she hustled down to the jail to post a one thousand dollar bail for MacFarlane, who in less than an hour after the killing agreed to be her new partner. Yes sir, the Frenchwoman never missed an enterprising opportunity.

Coming out of Bannack, Dumont headed to Fort Benton, a hustling-bustling supply point for the Montana goldfields. Here she duplicated her previous operation that featured booze, beauties, and betting. However, the luster was gone from her earlier emporiums where elegance and decorum was paramount. She was reduced to operating in a low-rent dive. Steamboat captain, Louis Rosche described Dumont’s gambling saloon:

“The inside of the gambling house was worse looking even than the outside. The bar and the gaming rooms were housed in one big downstairs room. A rickety set of stairs led up to a second-floor balcony where I saw doors leading to about a dozen smaller rooms. The place was foggy with smoke and smelled of sweating, unwashed bodies and cheap whiskey. The floor was filthy… Faintly from one of the upstairs rooms I could hear the gibberish of a drunken man and the high, shrill laughter of a woman who was quite sober.”

Dumont bounced from one location to another until she decided it was time to retire from the gambling life so she bought a cattle ranch in California and for a short time tried to make a go of it in honest work. Quickly realizing she had no idea how to run a ranch she hooked up with a smooth-talking man named Jack McKnight who claimed to be a savvy cattle buyer. Handsome and well-dressed, McKnight promised her he could take care of everything and they tied the knot. With the ink barely dry on their marriage certificate McKnight did just that – he took everything she had and absconded.

Forced to return to the only thing she knew how to do Dumont hit the mining camps and eventually landed in Deadwood in the fall of 1876. She dealt twenty-one in various saloons and was observed by John F. Finerty, a journalist for the Chicago Times. In an article, he wrote: “She had a once-handsome face, which crime had hardened into an expression of cruelty. Her eyes glittered like that of a rattlesnake and she raked in the gold dust or chips with hands whose long white fingers, sharp at the ends, reminded me of a harp’s talons.”

Reduced to barely eking by as a dealer in low-class gambling dens, Dumont finally drifted into Bodie, California, in 1879. By this point, she was usually drinking heavily and finding it much harder to compete against professional sharps that sat at her twenty-one table. On the night of September 7, at the Magnolia saloon, she borrowed $300 to bank her table against two blacklegs. Try as she might she just did not have it in her; she was 49, penniless, befuddled by a whiskey soaked brain, and finally as she turned the last card she was completely out of luck. Gathering all the dignity she could muster she pushed her chair away from the table and stood up, “Gentlemen, the game is yours.”

The next morning they found her dead lying beside an empty bottle of morphine. Among the personal items found on her body was a letter that she had written. Along with directions for the disposition of her effects, the letter stated, “she was tired of life.” The Sacramento Union summed up her entire life with these few lines: “Bodie: September 8. A woman named Eleanore Dumont was found dead today about one mile out of town, having committed suicide. She was well-known throughout the mining camps.”

Tennis Betting – Tips For Exchange Betting on Tennis Matches

By choosing tennis as your preferred sport for betting, you have already given yourself an “edge” against those who bet on or offer odds on other sports. To use this “edge” to make money consistently, however, you’ll need to understand two fundamental principles first. Then apply the power of mathematics.

Principle #1

It is sheer folly to place a tennis bet (or a bet on anything) with a “traditional” bookmaker. The expression “You can’t beat the bookie” is axiomatic; you just cannot beat the bookie over time. It’s because the odds are always mathematically calculated in favour of the bookmaker. Everyone knows (or should know) that the bookie’s mathematical “edge” against the punter is necessary for him to make a profit so that he can stay in business.

Computer technology has given rise to a new form of betting, known as “exchange betting” or “matched betting”. With “betting exchanges” there is no bookie to beat; in other words, there is no middle-man. Every punter bets against another punter or punters somewhere out there in the Internet ether. Any punter (or “trader”) can place a “back” bet that a player or team will win, and/or place a “lay” bet that a player or team will lose. Thus, any punter can choose to act as an ordinary bettor and/or as a bookmaker.

With exchange betting the odds are not set by a third-party or middle-man; they are set by the punters themselves, who place requests for odds at which they are prepared to place bets (if they wish to act as an ordinary bettor), or place offers of odds at which they are prepared to lay bets (if they wish to act as a bookmaker).

As the “back” bettors gradually lower their requested odds and the “lay” bettors gradually raise their offered odds, the software on the exchange betting web site matches all the back bets with all the lay bets at the instant they coincide. The accounts of the “backers” or “layers” are then credited with their winnings automatically a few seconds after the end of the event according to its result.

Obviously, the technology for providing such a “fair” betting service must be paid for somehow. This payment is taken in the form of a commission on the punter’s net winnings on an event (or “market”). That is, commission is charged only on any positive difference between winnings and losses on the same event.

This betting system is as close to a perfectly fair betting environment as it is possible to achieve.

There are very few betting exchanges in existence, however, perhaps because the exchange betting software is so complex and therefore costly. The giant among exchange betting web sites is Betfair, with about 90% of the market at the time of writing. Others are the Global Betting Exchange (BetDAQ), ibetX, Betsson, Matchbook and the World Bet Exchange (WBX). Betfair is by far the most popular because it was the first to offer this “perfectly fair” betting environment, and is trusted to perform accurately and instantly.

Principle #2

So, why does tennis betting give you that “edge” over betting on other sports? The answer, though simple, is often overlooked even by those who bet tennis regularly. And if you’re someone who’s never bet on tennis, you’d almost certainly not have realized the significance of the tennis scoring system on the betting.

Consider this fundamental difference between the tennis scoring system and that of probably any other sport you can think of.

In other sports and games the trailing player or team must make up the points gap by winning a point for every point they have already lost in order to catch up to the leader. Only then can they start to move ahead. This fact seems obvious.

In tennis, however, the trailing player or team can lose the first set 6-0 (possibly with a deficit of 24 points). That team can then win the second set by the most narrow of margins, 7-6 in a tie-break, winning the set by very few points (or even by winning fewer points than the opponents, a rare but possible occurrence!).

As soon as the trailing player or team wins the second set, the two sides suddenly have even scores, even though one player or team might have actually won many more points than the opponents.

This anomaly often has a profound psychological effect on one or both sides, which affects the way they play for the next few minutes, and therefore also the betting odds requested and offered by punters on the match. This, however, is another aspect of tennis betting which may be the subject of another article. This article deals with the mathematical aspect of tennis betting and how to win money with this knowledge.

How to win at tennis betting

Now that you’re aware of these two fundamental principles, how can you use them to your advantage when making tennis bets?

The key is not to be just a “backer” or a “layer”, simply betting on the final outcome of an event. If you do that, you will lose out over time, because there’s always a small difference between the “back” odds and the “lay” odds — there must be, otherwise there’d be no incentive for anyone to offer odds and there’d be no betting at all. Combine that with the commission you pay on your net winnings, and the “edge” is against you mathematically (although it is not as great as with conventional bookmakers).

The secret to winning at tennis betting is to be BOTH a “backer” AND a “layer”, but at different points during the event. This is another aspect of betting that distinguishes the exchange betting web site from the traditional bookie. At the betting exchange you can place a back or lay bet at any time during the event, right up until the very last second or the final point. This is known as “in-play” betting.

Because in-play betting is allowed, the odds for each opposing side change as the event progresses, according to the likelihood (as perceived by the punters) of either one side or the other being the eventual winner. The trick is to place a back bet on one side at certain odds and later place a lay bet on that side (or a back bet on the other side) at better odds as fortunes change and the odds swing in your favour. If you can achieve this, you will win your bet overall, regardless of the outcome of the event — a true “win-win” scenario.

Why bet on tennis and not on other sports?

Apart from Principle #2, explained earlier, tennis is ideal for such “swing” betting, because the odds fluctuate after every point is played. There are therefore very many small swings to one side and then to the other. This doesn’t happen in soccer, for example, because goals are so rare and a goal shifts the advantage suddenly and hugely to the scoring side.

Furthermore, a tennis match can have one of only two results; there can be no draw or tie; and one of only two players or teams can win. In horse racing, for example, the winner can come from a large number of runners.

The more possible outcomes there are to factor into the equation, the more difficult it is to win. (Despite this obvious logic, soccer and horse racing remain the two most popular sports for betting, probably for historical reasons. Tennis is already third in popularity, however, as more and more punters discover the fact that it is easier to make money betting on tennis than on any other sport.)

“In-play” betting or “pre-event” betting?

Now that you have — it is hoped — understood and absorbed the generalities of exchange betting and the peculiarities of tennis scoring, it is time to explain the details of how you can win at tennis betting.

Earlier it was stated that the secret to winning at tennis betting is to be both a “backer” and a “layer”, but at different points during the event, placing bets at different times during the event as fortunes change and the odds swing in your favour. This can be done with both “in-play” betting and “pre-event” betting.

One method used with in-play betting is called “scalping”. As its name suggests, scalping involves skimming a tiny profit by backing or laying at exactly the right moment as the odds move slightly in your favour, perhaps when one player scores two or three consecutive points, and repeating the process again and again. The biggest drawback of scalping is that it is very time-consuming and fraught with mental and physical tension. Not only must you pay full attention to what’s happening during the match by live video broadcast, but you must also catch exactly the right moments at which to bet, which is, in fact, made impossible by the 5-second delay imposed by the exchange betting software between the time you place the bet and the time it is accepted.

We’re not elaborating on this here because, as stated previously, this article is about winning by mathematics, not by the sweat of your brow. The maths aspect involves betting, not during the event, but before the event starts. That is, pre-event betting.

Mathematics do not lie!

There are a few tennis betting “systems”, some purely manual, others using software programs, some of which are enormously complicated. From the investigations of the writer (a mathematician), they all require the input, at some point, of a “probability factor” by the bettor. This probability factor is usually the odds at which you want your “balancing” bet (the “lay” bet on the “backed” side or the “back” bet on the opposing side) to be triggered, giving you the “win-win” scenario mentioned earlier.

So, how do you determine the value of this probability factor? That, dear reader, is the crucial point of the whole matter, the linch-pin that holds any exchange betting “system” together and determines whether it succeeds or fails, whether you win or lose.

Up to now, it seems, this probability factor has had to be determined by the sheer experience of a few seasoned professional gamblers, or by trial-and-error guesswork by lesser mortals. Little wonder that so many punters lose or do not win as much as they could because they do not know the EXACT value needed to optimize their bets!

Accuracy is of paramount importance when determining the probability factor, in order to maximize the chances of winning consistently. A search on the Web for a tool to calculate it proved negative. The writer therefore created one that encompasses not only all aspects of exchange betting but also the peculiarities of the tennis scoring system, and called it the Abacus Exchange Betting Calculator, for want of a better name. The probability factor is calculated to two decimal places, merely by entering the pre-event odds of both opposing sides, and has enabled the writer to make consistently more than 10% profit from tennis betting since Wimbledon 2009.

As a parallel test, the writer also placed bets according to “gut feeling”, in sufficient numbers to establish a trend. It resulted in a loss of 10% of the working capital (or “bank”).

Other tests were done, using the Abacus Exchange Betting Calculator, by betting on other sports where small odds swings occur, such as American Football, snooker and darts (very long matches only, otherwise the swings are too large). The results here just about covered the commissions paid on winnings; so, it is not worthwhile.

It seems, then, that the particular mathematical formula or algorithm (which is very complex) discussed here works well only in conjunction with the unique scoring system of tennis.

Conclusion

As a scientist, the writer feels that it is highly probable to win at sports betting consistently over time only when the following factors are present:

1. An exchange betting web site is used, not a conventional betting web site. (Beware of many sites that pretend to offer exchange betting by appearing in search engine results for “exchange betting”! Ensure that their software system enables you both to back and to lay bets at any odds you want against other punters, not against the house. If in doubt, check that their web site looks like the one at Betfair.)

AND

2. The sport is tennis, because of its unique scoring system.

AND

3(a) You learn about and become experienced in in-play betting and are prepared to devote almost all your time glued to a computer screen while following each match, sometimes more than one simultaneously.

OR

3(b) You use software that tells you exactly the odds to request and offer and the stakes to place in pre-event betting in only a few minutes, thus allowing you to get on with your normal life.

Free Online Poker Games

Free online poker games are everywhere. You can find them on poker stars, absolute poker, full tilt poker etc…FREE OF CHARGE. Now if you are new to poker in general and do not know the poker rules quite yet I definitely suggest you start playing online. If you have been playing poker for years and years at a local casino or a home game, playing free online poker games is MUCH different. Reason being, you can’t actually see someone’s facial expressions and getting a read on an individual’s poker cards is much harder online. Also, catching a bluff online is much harder than in person. The good thing about playing poker online is when you finally get familiar with where to play poker online and how to when playing for play money poker chips you can move into playing for real money.

The first thing you must know when you jump into real money tables is they are MUCH MORE different than playing for play money. Player’s games completely change when money is on the line. Don’t ask me why, but if players don’t have money on the line most of them are just not motivated to try and win. To reach the stage of players trying you have to move into real money games offered on all the same sites that you can play free game online poker on, you can play real money on also. What I suggest you doing is depositing $50.00 if you do not have that much. I was a poor college student starting out when I started playing for real money. It has turned into a house, car, and me being able to quit my job so it is definitely possible. After you deposit this $50.00, many poker sites such as fulltilt poker and poker stars will give you a 100% deposit bonus to match whatever you deposit up to $600.00. That’s great for you, right when you deposit that $50.00 you now have $100.00 bucks to work with. Instead of jumping right into a cash game with this $100.00 I strongly urge you to try out sit n go games. You can’t go wrong with poker tournaments online. If you are unfamiliar with sit n go’s basically they are mini tournaments consisting of 9 players which the top 3 of these players make it to the money. The prize structure is as follows:

3rd place = 20% of the total prize pool offered

2nd place = 30% of the total prize pool offered

1st place = 50% of the total prize pool offered

Looking at these payouts, winning first place in a sit and go is like three 3rd place finishes. It is VERY important to try and get first place each time. A great poker tip you should know is to play tight all the way through until there is 4 players left in which you need to play aggressive. When there is 4 players left everyone will start playing tight but YOU in hopes to hang on for a 3rd place finish and into the money. This is the most perfect time to steal their blinds and cruise your way into a first place finish.